Ukraine accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile during an overnight attack, although this was disputed by a Western official who stated it was a ballistic missile but not an ICBM. The Kremlin did not immediately respond to the accusation. The missile was allegedly targeting the city of Dnipro in Ukraine, with its impact still being assessed. This escalation came after Ukrainian forces used long-range U.S. and British-supplied missiles in previous attacks on Russia. The Kremlin has recently revised its nuclear doctrine, allowing for a nuclear strike if attacked by a nonnuclear country supported by a nuclear state. Analysts have urged caution in interpreting Putin’s alleged use of an ICBM, as its conventional role may not be logical due to low accuracy and high cost. The likelihood of Russia using nuclear weapons in the conflict with Ukraine is considered slim, given the current military situation. The West relaxing restrictions on Ukraine’s use of long-range weapons may not significantly change the battlefield situation. The potential diplomatic consequences of using nuclear weapons, including alienating China and other non-Western countries, are also a factor. Ultimately, despite the escalation and sabre-rattling, the risk of Russian nuclear use in the conflict is considered low at this time.
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