Israeli air attacks on Lebanon have left over 550 dead and 90,000 displaced, pushing the conflict with Hezbollah towards a potential all-out war. Israel has called up reserve forces, indicating a possible escalation, but analysts believe a ground invasion may not be imminent. The lack of a clear Israeli strategy makes predicting their next move difficult. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged to remove the “threat” from Lebanon, but faces opposition within Israeli society over the strategy. An invasion would likely result in a protracted war with devastating consequences for Lebanon’s civilian population.
Hezbollah’s strength and ability to resist invasion are noted, as well as the potential for guerrilla warfare tactics to prolong any conflict. Israel’s unclear long-term strategy may be aimed at distracting from internal political issues, but a ground war would come at an enormous cost to civilians. Attempting to force Hezbollah into capitulating or responding for pretext appears to be the current objective for Israeli officials. So far, Hezbollah has responded to attacks with restraint, targeting military sites rather than civilians.
The ongoing conflict has resulted in a significant death toll and displacement in Lebanon, with both sides wary of engaging in a full-scale war. Israel’s air raids and threats of invasion are attempting to pressure Hezbollah into a response that would allow Israel to avoid a costly ground war. Despite significant attacks from both sides, neither has yet escalated to the point of initiating a widespread conflict.
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